Exit polls for the Bihar Assembly Elections 2025 point to a strong comeback for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Polling ended on November 11 with a record 67.14% turnout—the highest since 1951. Now, all eyes are on the results due November 14. Most surveys predict NDA will cross the 122-seat majority mark in the 243-seat house, led by Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) and BJP.
A poll-of-polls from nine major agencies, including Matrize, People’s Pulse, and Chanakya Strategies, averages NDA at 147 seats. The Mahagathbandhan (RJD, Congress, Left parties) is projected at 90 seats, down from 110 in 2020. Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj may win just 1 seat in its debut. Others could take 5 seats.
NDA leaders like Deputy CM Samrat Chaudhary hailed the trends as a “2/3rd majority” mandate for development and harmony. RJD’s Manoj Jha dismissed the polls, vowing a “huge win” for Tejashwi Yadav on counting day. In 2020, NDA scraped 125 seats; 2015 saw Mahagathbandhan’s sweep.
Below is a summary of key exit polls. Ranges show projected seats for NDA (BJP+), Mahagathbandhan (RJD+), Jan Suraaj, and Others.
| Agency | NDA (BJP+) | MGB (RJD+) | Jan Suraaj | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll Dayari | 184-209 | 32-49 | — | 1-5 |
| Praja Poll Analytics | 186 | 50 | — | 7 |
| Matrize Aaj Tak | 147-167 | 70-90 | 0-2 | 2-8 |
| TIF Research | 145-163 | 76-95 | — | 3-6 |
| PI-NAC | 142-162 | 80-98 | 1-4 | 0-3 |
| Peoples Pulse | 133-159 | 75-101 | 0-5 | 2-8 |
| Dainik Bhaskar | 145-160 | 73-91 | 0-3 | — |
| Jewlsi Poll | 135-150 | 88-103 | 0-1 | 3-6 |
| Peoples Insight | 133-148 | 87-102 | 0-2 | 2-8 |
| Poll Street | 133-148 | 87-102 | — | 3-5 |
| Chanakya Strategies | 130-138 | 100-108 | — | 3-5 |
| Kamarya Analytics | 167-187 | 54-74 | 0-2 | 2-7 |
Poll-of-Polls Average: NDA: 147 | MGB: 90 | Jan Suraaj: 1 | Others: 5
The elections, held in two phases, tested Nitish Kumar’s 20-year rule against Tejashwi’s youth jobs push. OBC and SC voters favored NDA, per early data. Counting starts November 14—will polls hold?
