Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump are likely to meet on the sidelines of the 47th ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, on October 26–27, marking their first in-person interaction since Washington imposed crippling 50% tariffs on Indian goods in August. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has confirmed Trump’s attendance, describing it as a “diplomatic coup,” while Modi’s participation aligns with India’s consistent engagement in ASEAN forums. Sources indicate no formal agenda has been set, but discussions could focus on trade tensions, H1-B visas, and strategic partnerships amid a recent thaw in bilateral ties.
Background on the Tariff War
US-India relations hit a low in late August when Trump doubled tariffs on most Indian imports to 50%, adding a 25% “penalty” to an existing 25% reciprocal duty, primarily to punish New Delhi for purchasing discounted Russian crude oil—now 35–40% of India’s imports, up from under 2% pre-2022. The measures, likened to a “trade embargo” by economists, target sectors like textiles, gems, footwear, and chemicals, potentially slashing affected exports by 70% and shaving 1% off India’s GDP growth this fiscal year. India has vowed retaliation, emphasizing energy security for its 1.4 billion citizens, while calling the penalties “unfair” and a double standard—China, the top Russian oil buyer, faces only 30% duties.
Trump’s White House has framed the tariffs as addressing a “national emergency” tied to Russia’s Ukraine invasion, arguing India’s purchases fund Moscow’s “war machine” and allow New Delhi to “launder” and resell refined oil for profit. Trade advisor Peter Navarro escalated rhetoric, dubbing the conflict “Modi’s war” and accusing India of “arrogance” for prioritizing sovereignty, even invoking caste stereotypes in defenses of the policy. The tariffs also coincide with Trump’s overtures to Pakistan, further straining ties.
Signs of a Thaw
Despite the friction, recent overtures suggest de-escalation. Trump extended birthday wishes to Modi on September 16, calling their bond “very special” and praising him as a “great Prime Minister” during a meeting with UK PM Keir Starmer. Modi reciprocated by endorsing Trump’s 20-point Gaza peace plan on social media, hailing it as a “viable pathway” for regional stability—a post Trump reshared without comment. Both sides have acknowledged ongoing trade talks, with Trump softening his tone and India emphasizing a “positive and forward-looking” partnership. Analysts view the potential Malaysia meeting as a reset opportunity, possibly addressing QUAD cooperation and a Trump visit to India for the next summit.
The ASEAN Summit, themed “Inclusivity and Sustainability,” will also feature leaders like China’s Xi Jinping and Brazil’s Lula da Silva, spotlighting global issues from Myanmar’s crisis to economic resilience. As Anwar defends Trump’s invitation amid domestic criticism from figures like Mahathir Mohamad over US support for Israel, the gathering could test ASEAN’s diplomatic heft.
