Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed a Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement, declaring that an attack on one nation would be treated as an aggression against both. Following the signing, Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif stated that the pact ensures both countries will provide military support to each other if India or any other nation launches an attack on either. His remarks, made in an interview with Geo News, have raised concerns in India about the implications of this deepened alliance, particularly given Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities and the volatile regional context after Israel’s September 9 strike on Qatar.
What Khawaja Asif Said
Asif emphasized the pact’s mutual commitment, stating, “If India or any other country attacks Pakistan, Saudi Arabia will stand by us with military support, and we will do the same for them.” He highlighted the agreement’s flexibility, noting that it is “open-ended” and could extend to other Arab states, potentially broadening the alliance. Asif clarified that the pact covers “all military means,” though he did not explicitly confirm whether this includes Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal. He framed the agreement as a deterrent against regional threats, particularly citing India’s Operation Sindoor strikes in May 2025, which targeted terror infrastructure in Pakistan and PoK following the April 22 Pahalgam attack that killed 26 civilians.
Implications for India
India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA), through spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal, responded cautiously on September 18, stating, “We have seen reports of the signing of a strategic mutual defence pact between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. The Government was aware that this development, which formalizes a long-standing arrangement, had been under consideration. We will study the implications for our national security and regional stability.” India, a key Saudi trading partner with $42.98 billion in bilateral trade in FY 2023-24 and growing military ties through exercises like SADA-TANSEEQ in 2024, expects Riyadh to balance its relations with both nations.
Analysts argue that Saudi Arabia is unlikely to engage directly in an India-Pakistan conflict due to its robust ties with New Delhi and strategic interests in the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC). Dr. Bilal Afzal, a Spain-based analyst, tweeted, “The Saudi-Pakistan defence pact looks mutual on paper, but in reality, it isn’t. Riyadh won’t risk its India ties if Pakistan is attacked. But if Israel strikes Saudi, Pakistan would step in, for religion, politics, and pact.” This suggests the pact is more symbolic for Pakistan, offering diplomatic leverage against India, while Saudi Arabia’s primary focus is deterring threats from Iran and Houthi rebels in Yemen.
Saudi Arabia’s Position
A senior Saudi official, speaking anonymously to Reuters, clarified that the pact is not aimed at any specific country, including India, and is the “culmination of years of discussions” to institutionalize decades-long security cooperation. Since 1967, Pakistan has trained over 8,200 Saudi military personnel, and up to 2,000 Pakistani troops are currently deployed in Saudi Arabia for operational and training support. The official emphasized that Saudi Arabia’s relationship with India “is more robust than ever,” citing joint military exercises and energy trade, and denied the pact was a direct response to recent events like the Qatar strike.
Strategic Context
The agreement follows a brief India-Pakistan conflict in May 2025, where India’s Operation Sindoor neutralized terror camps, prompting Pakistan to seek a ceasefire within four days. The pact also comes amid Gulf states’ growing distrust in US security guarantees, particularly after Israel’s Doha attack, which killed six, including a Qatari security officer. Saudi Arabia, wary of Iran and Houthi threats, sees Pakistan’s military and nuclear capabilities as a strategic asset, though experts doubt Riyadh would risk its India ties for direct involvement in a South Asian conflict.
Will Saudi Arabia Step In?
While Asif’s statement suggests a strong commitment, analysts believe Saudi intervention in an India-Pakistan war is improbable unless Pakistan faces an existential threat. Saudi Arabia’s economic and strategic ties with India, including 18% of India’s energy imports and joint ventures like IMEC, outweigh the likelihood of military engagement. The pact likely serves as a deterrent signal to Israel and a means to secure Saudi financial aid for Pakistan, which received a $3 billion loan extension in December 2024. For now, India is adopting quiet diplomacy, strengthening ties with Israel and other Gulf states to counterbalance the pact’s regional impact.
