China’s Soybean Pivot to Brazil Deepens US Farmers’ Woes Amid Trade War
As Donald Trump’s trade war with Beijing intensifies, China has increasingly turned to Brazil for soybean imports, dealing a heavy blow to American farmers who once supplied more than half of China’s demand.
According to reports, Brazil — itself hit by tariffs of up to 50% similar to those imposed on India — has now overtaken the US as China’s main soybean supplier. Customs data shows that in July, China imported 420,873 tonnes of US soybeans, a year-on-year decline of 11.5%, while nearly 90% of total soybean shipments came from Brazil. The US accounted for just 4%.
The world’s largest soybean importer, China, has also halted forward purchases of American soybeans for September and October, compounding the pressure on US farmers as harvest season nears. Farmers’ groups have warned the White House that they “cannot survive a prolonged trade dispute with our largest customer,” Bloomberg reported.
Last month, China’s soybean imports surged 19% year-on-year, with Brazil emerging as the dominant supplier despite higher costs. Reuters estimates the shift could cost US farmers billions, given that China purchased more than half of US soybean exports in 2023–24.
The trend comes amid closer diplomatic alignment between Beijing and Brasília. Following an hour-long call with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Chinese President Xi Jinping declared that China “supports Brazil in safeguarding its legitimate rights and interests” — a remark widely seen as a veiled rebuke of Trump, who has justified tariffs on Brazil by citing the prosecution of his ally, former president Jair Bolsonaro.
The soybean realignment underscores how Brics nations are seeking to cushion themselves from Washington’s tariff measures by boosting intra-bloc trade and diversifying markets.
